ESPN.com writer Jayson Stark posted today a column on why Alex Rodriguez is not the MVP of the American League. This appears to be a rebuttal to an oppositely posed column by another ESPN.com writer, Rob Neyer. It's an interesting argument, but I'm not here to weigh in on it. I think it, more or less, comes down to what you think "valuable" means.
What I am here to discuss is Mr. Stark's contention that the Oakland As have the best left side of the infield in all of the major leagues: "the Athletics' two best players -- Miguel Tejada and Eric Chavez -- finally snapped out of first-half funks to resume their place as the best left side of any team's infield."
The point here isn't to prove him wrong, but just that it's an interesting topic to look at. Which team does have the best third base and shortstop combination? Well, first let's think which teams have great players at either position. Derek Jeter is having a nice season, and Aaron Boone is playing better lately, but I don't think think of that as a dominant pair. The Blue Jays' Eric Hinske and Orlando Hudson are very promising players, but nowhere near great yet. Bill Mueller and Nomar Garciaparra are having terrific seasons for Boston, definitely providing some competition for Chavez and Tejada.
In the rest of the AL, only one other team seems to have a strong duo, and that's Texas' Hank Blalock and Alex Rodriguez.
In the NL, there are three pairs that are worth looking at. San Diego's Mark Loretta and Sean Burroughs are having solid seasons, Atlanta's Vinny Castilla and Rafael Furcal are playing well, and St. Louis' Scott Rolen and Edgar Renteria are playing great, as is the norm with them. But which of all these pairs is really the best in all of baseball?
None of these players are obvious defensive catastrophes, so we'll limit our comparison to offensive statistics. For our purposes, we'll look at each players batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. We'll then add up each pair's OPS to see which combination has the highest total OPS.
Miguel Tejada: .276/.334/.474/.808
Eric Chavez: .281/.350/.503/.853
Total OPS: 1.661
Nomar Garciaparra: .306/.350/.526/.876
Bill Mueller: .329/.401/.548/.948
Total OPS: 1.824
Alex Rodriguez: .299/.396/.606/1.002
Hank Blalock: .309/.360/.534/.894
Total OPS: 1.896
Mark Loretta: .323/.379/.450/.830
Sean Burroughs: .292/.359/.416/.775
Total OPS: 1.605
Rafael Furcal: .289/.350/.441/.791
Vinny Castilla: .277/.311/.461/.772
Total OPS: 1.563
Edgar Renteria: .330/.395/.484/.879
Scott Rolen: .286/.381/.530/.912
Total OPS: 1.791
Unsurprisingly, Atlanta's Rafael Furcal and Vinny Castilla score the lowest combined OPS. Neither have great OBP, particularly Vinny Castilla. More surprising is that San Diego's Sean Burroughs and Mark Loretta are able to get within 56 points of the "best" third base and shortstop combination, Miguel Tejada and Eric Chavez. Neither of these Padres hit for much power, but both have been above average at getting on base.
The Cardinals' Scott Rolen and Edgar Renteria are great players, but they were unable to break the 1.800 barrier that only Boston and Texas crossed. Even then, the Rangers' duo of Hank Blalock and Alex Rodriguez outstripped the Red Sox pair by over 70 points in total OPS. With both players being able to get on base at a good rate and slug the hell out of the ball, ARod and Blalock have shown themselves to be the best left side of the infield in all of baseball, at least for this year.
It's funny how it works out sometimes. A writer makes an unrelated comment in passing, and with a closer look, we find that not only are Miguel Tejada and Eric Chavez not the best left side of the infield in baseball, they aren't the best in their division. That doesn't mean I'd complain if the Mariners signed Tejada, though.
Next time: What the hell happened to John Olerud?
AL West
The AL West is probably the most competitive division in the AL, if not all the majors. Even the worst team in the division, Texas, has a winning percentage thirty points higher than that of any last place team in the majors. While the Angels are (predictably) having a mediocre season, both them and the Rangers are dangerous teams.
While I'm a big Mariners fan, I predicted Oakland to win the division. The Mariners didn't really get any better in the off-season, aside from the acquisition of Greg Colbrunn, and the pitching staff had many question marks, including Garcia, Franklin, Nelson, and Sasaki.
Oakland didn't exactly make a lot of changes either, but with young position players like Tejada and Chavez, and the Big Three that was supposed to become the Big Four with Ted Lilly supposedly improving significantly, they seemed to have the best chance to win. With the way the Mariners fade in the second half, it's hard to bet against Billy Beane's trading deadline mastery.
While Barry Zito has struggled somewhat, and Mulder is out for the rest of the regular season, Tim Hudson has been brilliant, Ted Lilly has been pretty good overall, and Keith Foulke has been tremendous. Once again, the pitching will carry the team into the post-season, to the surprise of no one.
AL Central
My pick for the AL Central was the Chicago White Sox, currently two games ahead of the Twins. This was a tough call, as the Twins have a lot of quality players, but I also think they can be rather overrated. Torii Hunter is a great defensive center fielder, but he just isn't a great hitter. Last year Hunter had a nice OPS at .858, but even in that career year, his OBP was only .334, not much above the league average. I don't think I need to go into how poor a middle infield Rivas and Guzman are, offensively speaking. They're like the Mariners with worse pitching and without a huge home field, basically.
Now, I completely misjudged the White Sox and why they'd succeed. I assumed they'd mash the ball left and right, put up a ton of runs, and have decent pitching to win the weakest division in baseball. Instead, they've pitched very well, and the offense has only come around recently.
Frank Thomas is having a very nice season, looking like his true comeback year, Magglio Ordonez is putting up good numbers (as always), and Carl Everett hasn't done a bad job for them. But, Joe Crede and Paul Konerko had miserable first-halfs, only turning it around since the break.
What kept the Chi Sox in the hunt until the offense came around was good pitching by Loaiza, Colon, and Buehrle. Loaiza is a total surprise to everyone, I think, and Buehrle's strikeout numbers were so low that I didn't expect him to continue having much success. But, they've held it together, even with the meltdown of Billy Koch (Oakland strikes again), and look ready to make a serious post-season run with a strong front end of the rotation and good-looking bullpen.
AL East
I picked the Yankees. I don't think I need to explain why. They're the Yankees, and there's no reason for them not to win the division. They're three games ahead of the Red Sox.
AL Wildcard
This was another tough one, as I really thought the Mariners of the Red Sox could pull it out. I eventually settled on Boston. Their offense is unmatched. There are a few teams you look at the lineup and see no easy outs, but this team really has no easy outs. You just can't pitch around anyone. At best, you face Johnny Damon, Kevin Millar, or Todd Walker, and those are all good hitters. They can mash more than any team in baseball, and that's what has carried them.
I thought the bullpen would be better than it was, and while I expected Derek Lowe to decline more than he has this season, I also expected Casey Fossum to be a quality starter for them, so things have evened out. They're a more rounded team now than when the year began, but it's still the offense that's making it all work. Boston is 2.5 games ahead of Seattle for the wild card, and I don't think the Mariners will overtake them.
NL West
I picked San Francisco. Dodgers have no offense, particularly when Shawn Green is injured, the Diamondbacks are too old, and the Rockies and Padres aren't really worth serious consideration.
Now, how the Giants are winning is a bit of a surprise to me. Of course, Bonds is hitting like he tends to do, but Jose Cruz Jr., Benito Santiago, and Edgardo Alfonzo have all had pretty miserable years. Durham has been hurt much of the year, Aurilia hasn't been very good, and JT Snow alternates between not hitting much and being injured. Now, Alfonzo and Cruz have both kept their OBP up to at least respectable numbers (.324, .362), but their OPS are weak, even for Pac Bell (.686, .765). I expected a nice season from Cruz, batting around Bonds, and at least a dozen homers from Alfonzo. Instead, it's been Cruz and Marquis Grissom battling for second place in home runs on the team.
Luckily, the Giants pitching staff has done an amazing job of holding together. Jason Schmidt should win the Cy Young (even if his wins look low), Tim Worrell has done a great job filling in for Nen, and Correia, Hermanson, Williams, and Foppert have all done a good job of giving the Giants a chance to win. It's been a patchwork rotation that's given them a huge lead in the division.
NL Central
The NL Central was another very difficult division to pick from. The Astros, Cubs, and Cardinals all have some great strengths and glaring weaknesses. After much deliberation, I picked the Cardinals.
The Cardinals have the best offense in their division, if not the NL, and their starting pitching didn't appear too bad. Matt Morris is a legit ace, and Tomko, Williams, and Stephenson all appeared to be serviceable innings eaters who would pitch well enough that the Cardinals could score enough runs. Well, the Cardinals are still in the hunt, though they're 2.5 games back. Morris has battled injuries, missing or pitching hurt (and ineffectively) for much of the season, Tomko has pitched much worse than expected, Williams has tailed off after a strong start (way overused by La Russa), and Stephenson has not pitched well.
I expected the Astros to not have enough starting pitching, already predicting that Oswalt would have significant injuries (he's a small guy, throws hard, and throws a lot of innings), and knowing that Biggio and Bagwell aren't getting any younger, not to mention Kent's inevitable decline without Barry nearby. Well, they've done better than I expected, even with Oswalt gone, they're tied for first place in the central. They've put up runs, have a great bullpen, and the starting pitching has been adequate.
The Cubs don't score many runs, but their starting pitching is the best in the league. They have a chance to make it to the post-season if things break the right way for them, but I wouldn't be surprised if the offense can't seal the deal.
Like I said, this is still anyone's division, though I now think the Astros probably have the best shot, but I'd never count out a team with a Pujols and Morris or a Sosa and Prior.
NL East
Who bets against the Braves winning their division? Their starting pitching got panned going into the season, but I thought Hampton would get back to at least being decent, Maddux would be solid, and that Byrd would get the job done. Maybe no true ace, but at least three guys who could win you 15 games.
Instead, the Braves have hit the hell out of the ball. I'd written off Javy Lopez for dead, Sheffield as over the hill, and Chipper as overrated. But, Furcal has had a nice season, Marcus Giles a great one, and Sheffield and Lopez are having career years. Castilla has also had a nice season, along with Robert Fick at first base. Before hurting himself, Andruw Jones was hitting pretty well. Russ Ortiz shouldn't win the Cy Young, but this is a dangerous team running away with the division.
NL Wildcard
I predicted Philadelphia, in a tough call over Florida. Millwood, with Philly's other good young starters, and Thome looked to carry this team, and while that may not be totally accurate now, they've done a solid job. Burrell has struggled like I never would have thought, and David Bell has been a non-factor, but the pitching continues to keep them in the game.
Florida could still take it, though. It's a toss-up of which team's young pitchers can help the most, and which team's inconsistent offense can hit a hot streak. Either way, it should be close in the end.
Conclusion
So my picks are looking pretty solid so far, even if I completely misjudged why a team would be successful. None of my selections have bombed badly, and there's still a good chance that all my picks do, in fact, make the post-season.