Casey Fossum is getting batted around again, and this time I did start him for my fantasy team. I figured the weak Indians would be a nice opportunity for him to get some Ks, lower the ol' ERA and WHIP, and let the Red Sox offense hook him up with the win. Well, he gave up two runs in the top of the first, but he did get a strikeout, and the Red Sox already put up another run in the bottom of the first. It'll all even out.
Now for the real meat of the writing. I just read the latest Jayson Stark column, over at ESPN. Jayson is one of the better baseball writers, I think, and I particularly enjoy his Miscellaneous Rumblings. Rumors are fun in every industry, and baseball is no exception. I thought I'd go through the rumors and, uh, offer my opinion on the impact they'd have on the team, if it's a good idea, etc.
The first rumor isn't really a traditional sort. It's that the new book Moneyball, which writes quite a bit about Oakland GM Billy Beane (aka Best GM Ever, though I'd like to write a bit about how he's overrated to some extent), could portray him in such a way as to make him look a bit like a used car salesmen, trying to screw people. The fear is that GMs will be unwilling to make a deal with Beane, thinking he's always got the upper hand somehow. But yeah, this isn't really a problem. To be a GM, I think you need to have a lot of confidence in your own knowledge and ability, and they won't simply accept that they can't get a deal they like. Like the column says, it's just about getting what you want.
The next rumor is that the Yankees are looking for some bullpen help, but that Steinbrenner doesn't want to spend the dough. Some of the names being tossed around are Urbina, Escobar, Grimsley, and Benitez.
All of these guys are good candidates to be moved. The Rangers have been talking about avoiding expensive free agents and building from the farm system, but really haven't done much of that. Urbina is very expensive, though, getting paid legit closer dollars, which is a lot to pay for a setup man or reliever. Cordero could do a good job as closer for the Rangers, and maybe some day Zimmerman will actually be healthy and close for the Rangers.
Escobar is a guy who will to be too expensive for the Blue Jays. Though his numbers are pretty ugly so far, he really is a serviceable closer. He's struggled like Hell in non-save relief situations, but if he's settled into that role consistently, I think he should be fine.
Grimsley probably makes the most sense for the Yankees. He's making a lot less money, since he's not a closer, he's a veteran, and he wouldn't need to change from a closer mindset. The Royals have to clear payroll, and with all their young arms he's one of the easiest players to replace over the next year or two.
Benitez is a lot like Escobar or Urbina. Makes some big money, used to closing, but could settle into a setup or middle relief role. Benitez has also shown he can perform in New York. The Mets have been hoping his value will go up as teams get more desperate for a closer, but if they hold on too long, they could end up like the Expos with Bartolo Colon and not get much in exchange. The longer they wait, the more teams will look to other options for trades.
The next word from Mr. Stark is that the Yankees farm system is barren. Yeah, everyone knows that. It looks like Drew Henson should have picked football over baseball, and there's not much impetus for high budget teams to keep stocked farm systems.
The next rumbling is about the Royals quickly falling in the rankings and having to deal Carlos Beltran to clear salary. Not to say I-told-you-so, but I never believed the Royals were for real. They have some live arms, a couple guys who can hit a little, and they play in baseball's weakest or second weakest division, but they aren't really all that good. Not enough offense, not enough experience and polish. They really do have a lot of upside in the next couple of years, though.
This isn't from Mr. Stark's column, but one rumor I read elsewhere, I think from Peter Gammons, was that the Mariners are looking for a center fielder. I'm not sure if Mr. Gammons was joking, but he mentioned Rob Mackowiak's name. Mackowiak may be cheaper and younger, but talk about, at best, lateral movement.
Last year, Rob batted .244 with a .328 OBP, hitting 16 home runs, stealing nine bases, and striking out 120 times in 385 at-bats. So, while he didn't get as many ABs as a full-time player, he hit for some power, had a pretty decent OBP relative relative to his batting average, and stole a few bases. I haven't seen him play much, but his ESPN Player's Card says he has turned from an infielder into an average outfielder.
Mike Cameron is 30 years old–4 years older than Rob–and made $4.25M compared to Rob's $227,000. Cameron's contract is up after this year, though. Last year, Cameron hit .239, very comparable to Rob, had an OBP of .340, getting on base slightly more than Rob, hit 25 home runs, stole 31 bases, and struck out 176 times.
Cameron has hit near .270 with as high as a .365 OBP in past seasons, but the other stats are pretty in line with a quality season for him. At 30, he's unlikely to improve significantly at this point. That said, Rob Mackowiak isn't exactly expected to start hitting for much more average or suddenly start stealing 30 bases. Cameron was second in the majors in strikeouts, but Rob was only 56 strikeouts behind with 150+ fewer ABs.
Cameron can be frustrating as hell with all his strikeouts, but the bottom line is he hits for comparable power, steals a lot more bases, and still have a higher OBP. This isn't even mentioning that Cameron is probably behind only Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter in defense, particularly important in the sizable Safeco. I could understand wanting to replace Cameron, but I think Carlos Beltran is a much more attractive option than Rob Mackowiak.
Maybe I'm crazy, but I think the Mariners could simply move Randy Winn over to center field if they choose not to re-sign Cameron. He has experience playing center for the Devil Rays. Hell, Ichiro could certainly play right field, though his arm seems best utilized in RF. The reason I mention these two options is that I'd really like to see Mariners prospect Chris Snelling get to the majors. The Aussie kid is a major stud at AA San Antonio, hitting .313. He saw a very small amount of time in the majors last year before hurting his knee, but looked comfortable. With McLemore, Mabry, and Colbrunn all looking for time off the Mariners bench, there aren't a lot of ABs available for a young kid like Snelling.
Anyway, this went a lot longer and more poorly organized than I expected.
SH
One of the Europeans who they talked to in Haiti talked about always having to add a few hours onto travel times, because you never know what could happen. Cars break down, traffic jams, traffic lights never work, etc. Haiti has been struggling for nearly two decades, according to the show's host, to rebuild the country following the collapse of the last regime.
In baseball, rebuilding a team isn't exactly easy, but there's a definite route to success. Trade away the remaining stars for prospects, use those prospects to restock your farm system, focus spending on the draft and development in the minor leagues, wait a few years, and with a little luck you can field a competitive, young, inexpensive team.
The As are the epitome of this strategy, never wasting a lot of money on overpriced players, always with a few players in the oven, nearly ready for the majors. The Indians are working towards this, trading Bartolo Colon, letting Jim Thome and Kenny Lofton walk, trading Chuck Finley, and basically ditching all the players that defined the Indians of the 1990s. This reduced their payroll significantly and gave them a ton of young players for the future. The Indians of today bear little resemblance to the Indians who made the playoffs in 2001.
The Indians will go from a perennial contender to a rebuilding team that loses a lot of games for probably no more than four years. By 2006, they'll almost certainly be at least a .500 team, and likely a playoff contender.
What struck me about this was how impossible it is to translate baseball franchise rebuilding to most "soft" rebuilding of countries. I doubt that's a real term, but what I mean by soft is that it wasn't like Germany following WW2, with an opportunity to rebuild from the ground up. A soft rebuilding, you do grafting and transplantation. In Haiti, they can't simply tear out all the crappy roads or traffic lights and build an entire planned system. The members of the franchise (the citizens) can't be traded or left to free agency; their needs have to be considered as the process goes.
I can't really say I have a point to this all, it was just an observation of the differences. Still, I don't think any baseball fan wouldn't be curious to see what Billy Beane could do if he was president of a country.
Casey Fossum, the starter for Boston, is getting rocked, five runs in one inning. I really like him, though, and think he has a bright future. He's young, left-handed, throws reasonably hard, and the Red Sox don't seem to be willing to trade him for anything. I actually just picked him up for my fantasy team the other day, looking for strikeouts and assuming the Red Sox will give him run support for wins. I'm no idiot, though, I didn't start him today against the Yankees.
The thing about baseball that I've noticed, is that if the game gets off to a fast start for scoring, it usually doesn't end up a blow out. For whatever reason, whether the opposing pitcher just relaxes too much, it seems like both teams end up scoring a ton. That's why I don't think this game is a forgone conclusion, because both teams can put up a helluva lot of runs.
That's not to say this game won't be a bit painful to watch, because it could easily take four hours, but there seems to be some evening out. I touched on this in the introductory entry, but just barely. That's a greatness of baseball; until your team gets 27 outs, the game isn't over. Casey Fossum might get rocked in the first inning, but he'll probably clamp down for the rest of his start, and David Wells will probably get a little over-confident and before you know it, it'll be 5-4.
I'm sure most of you have seen Bull Durham, and Costner says, "Stop trying to strike everybody out, that's fascist, let's get some ground balls, those are more democratic." Embarrassingly, that took me a bit to figure out, but I think I cracked the case. Ground balls always give the offense a chance. That's baseball, though, both sides have to get their chance.
As far as the evening out I mentioned, Fossum had a 1-2-3 second inning, and the Red Sox put up a run, even after a bad call that Nomar got tagged. By the fifth inning the game will be close to tied.
One guy who has been getting a lot of hype lately, in fantasy circles, is Matthew LeCroy. If you aren't familiar with him, he's a first base/DH/catcher type, who can really swing the bat. With all of the depth that the Twins have, though, he isn't going to get probably 400 at-bats. A lot of writers seem to have taken to him, though, so a lot of guys have been picking him up for their teams. The league sucker from my league added him and now has three catchers. Guiche. Yeah, for some people he's an upgrade, but taking the advice universally is pretty dumb.
Well, I'm going to go watch the rest of the game. Even though no one is reading this, I feel compelled to apologize first. I know it isn't good, and I'm still working to figure out what exactly I'm trying to communicate, if anything. I don't know if it's going to work.
My main concern at this point is whether I ever update the site, though I really have no reason to worry, because who cares. The other concern is how much it overlaps with my other journal, which I never update anyway, unless a friend harasses me about it. So, at least at first, there might be some pushing and shoving to see how far each site's sphere of influence goes.
This is going to be a public site, and I don't like to use names on a public site. What with the Google and the like, it's just too easy for everyone to find everything. Not to mention they really do deserve privacy. At the same time, it's hard to use fake names, even though I'm pretty sure in a few weeks I'll have a text file as a reference for who has what fake name. I'm not systematic enough to go with the Trials of Chastity guy's method of giving each girl a letter and a number.
So, maybe this site will stay pretty tame, and the other will be where I rant about girls. Frankly, that could be in everyone's best interest.
You might be wondering what any of this has to do with baseball. Though since no one is reading this, you probably aren't. This blog isn't just about baseball. I'm going to write about everything that's of interest to me. I think there's a reason that baseball is the national past time, that there are great movies and books about it, and that it captures the public's imagination. It's a romantic game, and more than a lot of sports, I think it's character-driven.
Of course there are winning shots by Jordan, amazing field goals or passes in football with no time on the clock, etc., in other sports. But I don't think any sport quite sets up moments of greatness like baseball. You can't run down the clock, and you always get your chance. There's always a ninth inning opportunity for someone to do something great.
I love sabermetrics (the statistical analysis of baseball), I read box scores every day, I just finished watching Baseball Tonight, I play fantasy baseball, and it's all just sports geek stuff. But I don't think it's just meaningless. I think there's something overarcing and philosophical about the game, and that's part of what I want to do with this blog.
Why I mentioned using people's names earlier is because I feel something similar about girls. Girls aren't just good looking or not, nice or not, available or not. I think of them as philosophical microcosms. What do guys talk about with regards to girls? Beauty, truth, emotion, happiness. Or at least, that's my experience. Baseball shares a lot of characteristics with that. Searching for truth in increasingly-complicated box scores, the beauty of the plays.
I'm also going to write about random anecdotes that I pick up from the books I'm reading and the classes I'm taking. Montaigne's books are formed largely from margin notes he made in other books. He kept journals of his comments on things he was learning and reading. I think that makes sense, particularly in our information age. Maybe I can remember some of it more clearly now, and it'll be conveniently archived with a handy search engine.
So yeah, this has been a very longwinded way of saying what this blog is going to be about. Baseball, girls, books, small items that have greater significance, I hope. I don't want to set this up as anything amazingly academic and deep, though. Half the time it'll probably be me ranting about how a guy in one of my fantasy leagues is carrying three catchers who can't hit and how he's a moron. But I wanted to explain that this blog should definitely have a variety of stuff and that I'm not just obsessed with the minutia of these subjects, but that I think philosophically in terms of them, and that it's meaningful to me. So yeah. That's the mission statement.
SH